Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a historic victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, winning about 44% of the vote in Sunday’s state election.

The result represents the AfD’s strongest performance in the state and brings the party closer than ever to controlling a German state government since the end of World War II. However, the party fell short of the 42 seats needed for an outright majority, winning a projected 39 of the 83 seats.

The election has therefore raised a major question: Can Germany’s political establishment keep the far right from taking power?

The AfD has traditionally been kept outside government through what German politicians call a “firewall”—an agreement among mainstream parties not to cooperate with the party. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has again ruled out working with the AfD, despite the party’s strong electoral performance.

The AfD, led in Saxony-Anhalt by Ulrich Siegmund, is now looking for support from other lawmakers to form a government. Mainstream parties have so far rejected cooperation, meaning the party may struggle to turn its election victory into political control.

The result is also a major setback for Merz’s centre-right CDU, which received only about 17%, less than half of its previous result in the state. Analysts say dissatisfaction over the economy, immigration, security and the direction of the federal government helped fuel support for the AfD.

The outcome could have implications beyond Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is already a major opposition force nationally, and its latest success could increase pressure on Germany’s established parties ahead of the 2029 federal election.

For now, the AfD has won the election—but whether it can actually form a government remains uncertain.