Standard Bank’s latest barometer shows off-shore gas has helped to propel Mozambique into the top spot in intra-Africa trade rankings
Mozambique has overtaken South Africa as the top trading country on the continent as intra-Africa trade grows thanks to improved infrastructure and implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a new report by Standard Bank says.
The bank this month launched its fifth annual Africa Trade Barometer, based on data from about 2,200 companies in the continent’s leading economies: Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.
Philip Myburgh, Standard Bank group head for trade, business & commercial banking, said AfCFTA, which began operating in 2021, “continues to strengthen supply chain resilience and deepen continental integration… Realising this potential will require disciplined execution, co-ordinated reform and sustained investment in competitive infrastructure and value addition.”
AfCFTA aims to transform Africa into the world’s largest free-trade area, connecting 1.3-billion consumers and unlocking more than $30bn (R500bn) in export potential to lift millions out of poverty.
The Standard Bank report said there were notable shifts in the rankings of the 10 countries surveyed.
“Mozambique emerged as the top-ranked country after rising from position three to position one,” it said. South Africa dropped from first to second place.
Businesses report increasing engagement with Asian markets, particularly China, citing competitive pricing, product variety, faster response times and supply-chain reliability as key drivers of sourcing decisions
— Standard Bank
The report said Mozambique had been helped by currency stability and high foreign direct investment inflows, “boosted by major projects like the Coral South and Coral North floating liquefied natural gas developments”.
Ghana and Angola climbed in the rankings, to positions six and eight respectively, “while Namibia fell to third, Kenya to seventh, and Zambia to 10th. Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda remained stable, retaining their positions at fifth, fourth and ninth, respectively.”
Standard Bank said firms reported improvements across all infrastructure categories, including power, 4G/5G coverage, highways and digitised border systems that cut clearance times and improve corridor predictability.
The report said the average government-support index score for trade rose from 51 in the previous barometer to 55. Businesses in the survey reported improvements in enabling reforms and regional trade integration efforts.
Access to credit improved, with the index rising to 49 in October 2025 from 43 in August 2024, which signalled an easing of liquidity constraints.
“This positive shift was driven by proactive monetary policy cycles as central banks in Ghana and South Africa implemented significant rate cuts throughout 2025 to lower borrowing costs, with the Bank of Ghana cutting its rate to 21.5% in September 2025.”
The report said recent shifts in global trade policy, including President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, meant African engagement with US companies had declined. “At the same time, businesses report increasing engagement with Asian markets, particularly China, citing competitive pricing, product variety, faster response times and supply-chain reliability as key drivers of sourcing decisions.”
Saul Levin, executive director of the economic research non-profit company Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies, said Mozambique had embarked on a major programme to improve its port and logistics infrastructure and had become an important export point for many South African commodities, including ferroalloys.
It had also become an important export thoroughfare for some of its landlocked neighbours. “This is a good news story and presents an opportunity for them to develop further with other infrastructure developments, such as extending the gas pipeline or bunkering of gas for use in South Africa.”
Levin said one of the objectives of the AfCFTA was to support economic growth across the continent, “and it is exciting to see Mozambique benefiting from developing its ports and related infrastructure.”
Niron Rampersad, divisional executive for trade at Nedbank corporate & investment banking, said South Africa could expand its trade with the rest of Africa by leveraging its industrial base, rather than relying solely on commodities.
“South Africa’s key export markets, particularly within Sadc markets, are Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Key sectors include automotive and transport equipment, machinery, iron and steel products, chemicals, processed foods and beverages — all areas where South Africa has established manufacturing depth, logistics capability and regulatory standards aligned with regional supply chains.”
For the first time, we have a harmonised rule that defines what it means to be ‘made in Africa’. This will unlock investment confidence, strengthen regional supply chains and drive industrialisation in line with the ambitions of the AfCFTA automotive strategy
— Victoria Backhaus-Jerling, African Association of Automotive Manufacturers CEO
Rampersad said processed agricultural goods and consumer staples represented a significant opportunity. South Africa already exported a diverse mix of milled grains, beverages, edible oils, packaged foods and household consumables into African markets.
“These categories are well-positioned for further growth — particularly where South African firms can partner with local producers to shorten supply chains and build regional manufacturing hubs. From a banking perspective, this creates demand for trade and supply chain finance.”
Meanwhile, the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM) has announced that rules of origin for automotive products under AfCFTA have been approved. Vehicles and components must have a minimum of 40% African-origin content to qualify as “made in Africa”.
Victoria Backhaus-Jerling, CEO of the AAAM, said this was a historic breakthrough for Africa’s automotive sector.
“For the first time, we have a harmonised rule that defines what it means to be ‘made in Africa’. This will unlock investment confidence, strengthen regional supply chains and drive industrialisation in line with the ambitions of the AfCFTA automotive strategy.”
Wamkele Mene, secretary-general of the AfCFTA, said the rules of origin approval provided legal certainty for the industry to invest in local manufacturing of automotive products and trade under the AfCFTA. “We call on the private sector to take advantage of this development and work with all the partners to drive inclusive growth and development of the African automotive industry.”
In agriculture, AgriSA’s 2025 trade report said implementation of AfCFTA remained uneven.
“Regional trade remains anchored in neighbouring and proximate markets. Zimbabwe remained South Africa’s largest African agricultural export destination in 2025, with exports valued at R20.1bn, reflecting sustained demand linked to structural food supply deficits.”
AgriSA said that although AfCFTA provides institutional architecture, realising its potential will require co-ordinated public and private sector investment.
