President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned that the United States’ decision to impose steep new tariffs on South African exports will deliver a blow to some key industries, but insists that the country will not be left without options.

Speaking in Japan after attending the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, Ramaphosa said the move by Washington was a setback but not the end of the road.

“Sometimes out of chaos comes opportunities, and we are now capitalising on that opportunity,” he said.

“We are finding that a number of countries have been hungry for South African products and have been looking forward to doing business with us. Every cloud has a silver lining.”

The president noted that the new tariffs would especially affect agriculture and manufacturing, sectors already under pressure.

However, he said the government had activated “diversification strategies, including re-establishing trade offices and assistance desks” to reduce reliance on traditional markets.

Japan is one of South Africa’s major trading partners, and Ramaphosa used the visit to promote closer cooperation.

He pointed to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s recent comments that Japan is open to adjusting tariffs for countries affected by US measures as an encouraging sign.

“This business forum provides a great opportunity to focus on what we have done so far, the opportunities between both our countries, and how we can tap into the benefits for a deeper partnership going forward,” he said.

South Africa’s exports to Japan include platinum, coal, manganese, titanium, iron ore, and various agricultural products such as Rooibos tea, wine, avocados and citrus fruit. More than 270 Japanese companies already operate in South Africa, employing over 200,000 people.

Ramaphosa said this existing relationship could be expanded into new areas such as automotive components, renewable energy equipment, hydrogen technologies and digital industries.

Pain still to come

.However, while Ramaphosa works to attract new partners, economists warn that the impact of the US tariffs will still be felt sharply in the coming years.

Chief economist at Aluma Capital, Frederick Mitchell, said the agricultural and manufacturing sectors will be most affected.

Although agricultural exports to the US rose 26% to $161 million in the three months before the tariffs, profitability could collapse if alternative markets are not secured quickly.

On the manufacturing side, he cautioned that vehicle exports face the greatest strain. “Major exporters like Mercedes-Benz South Africa and other vehicle manufacturers, due to export reliance on the US, will see their competitive edge eroded once tariffs are levied,” Mitchell said“This could lead to closures and job losses, particularly in regions like the Eastern Cape, which is heavily dependent on vehicle exports.”

Employment figures already highlight this fragility. The Eastern Cape lost 36,000 manufacturing jobs in the second quarter alone, with further declines expected if the tariffs bite as hard as projected.

Mitchell warned that the medium- to long-term effects could also drag down economic growth and weaken the rand.

“Slower economic growth, driven by uncertainties in trade, declining industrial activity, and potential job losses, could exert downward pressure on the rand in time,” he said.

He added that a weaker currency would feed into inflation, raise import costs, and potentially force tighter monetary policy.

Despite the damages, he said the efforts to broaden South Africa’s export base were a step in the right direction. He pointed to a recent agreement with China to export stone fruits such as peaches, nectarines, plums, and apricots as an example of progress.

He added that the true test will come in the next six to twelve months as the global trade landscape adjusts.

“The true test will unfold over the coming months. As the landscape shifts, conservative fiscal management and trade diversification will be key to maintaining stability and fostering sustainable growth in an ever-changing geopolitical and international economic landscape.”